This is a nice article. Even though I agree that PM is a fairly stable profession, I franklydisagree with most of the predictions. Specifically:
1. I don’t think CPO is coming. PMIhas been talking about CPO easily for 20 years, and I do not know any. I knowpeople who acts in that capacity, but not with the title.
2. I don’t also agree with decreasein PMO. I think the longevity of PMOs may decrease, and there may be somechanges in the number of PMOs. But I doubt the change is significant, in eitherdirection. This is because on one hand, PMOs are blamed for being too bureaucraticand thus increase its chances of shutting down. On the other hand, companiesare doing relative more projects thus giving more impetus to having PMOs.Overall, I think it’s a draw.
3. I don’t agree on the shift fromPM certifications. What the author stated is true, but being the human that weare, we like to compare and compete. Certifications are like “keeping up withthe Jones”. 4. I don’t have a strong opinion onthe fourth prediction. I think it’s a pendulum, and within a company, it willswing back and forth. But for a professional as a whole, I don’t’ see itchange. 5. I agree with #5 on remote PMs,but only in moderation. Technology has achieved a high degree of efficiency forremote knowledge workers about five years ago, and some PM jobs have alreadybecoming remote. But I don’t see the trend accelerating any more than the usualtechnology adoption. If anything, there may be a counter-trend that PMs nowwear many hats and need to be an integral part of the team. This is mainly due to agile.
Here’s what I do see, if I have to provide my own predictions:
1. Projects will continue to gainprogressive more attention from senior executives. But this progression is largely consistent with the historical change.
2. I think there will be some bloodyconsolidation in the PM/collaboration tool space. There are just too manycompeting products there, easily over 200 of them. I think once the economycools a bit more and the technology investments cools along, there will be somedeaths, near deaths, and mergers. But these are not likely to affect the overall PM marketing in a significant degree.
3. Agile will continue to gain moment, but there will be a stronger voice toward more careful use of agile and waterfall.
4. I do think the PM certificationswill grow, but not in the main one like PMP. I think CAPM and the specialty ones will grow faster.
5. There will likely be a new breed of “lean” and “agile” PMOs emerging as a mainstream concept in 2016.
Te Wu’s comments on the below article:
Bob Egeland for CIO writes:
What’s going to happen with project management in 2016? Since project management as a discipline is fairly static, I liken this concept of predicting changes in project management to a conversation two fictional characters had on one of my favorite shows, “The Big Bang Theory,” a few years ago. Leonard Hofstadter is an experimental physicist and his future girlfriend and wife, Penny, is asking questions about his job while they are out to dinner together.
Penny: “So, what’s new in the world of physics?”
Leonard: “Nothing.”
Penny: “Really, nothing?”
Leonard: “Well, with the exception of string theory, not much has happened since the 1930’s, and you can’t prove string theory, at best you can say “hey, look, my idea has an internal logical consistency.”
Penny: “Ah. Well I’m sure things will pick up.”
I think of project management changes when I think of this conversation about experimental physics. Still, I believe there are slow changes happening and some shifts in focus and management about to happen.
Here are my top five predictions for project management I 2016.
SNIP, the article continues @ CIO, click here to continue reading….